AS the dust begins to settle on the shock defection of Steve Cardownie from the ruling Labour group on Edinburgh City Council to the SNP, the ramifications of his switch are only now beginning to become clear.
Not only has he left Labour without an overall majority to run the city and push through its agenda, he has also set in motion a scramble for positions in the run-up to the next council AGM in the spring and the 2007 council elections thereafter.
And it's a scramble that is no doubt leaving council leader Donald Anderson more shaken than stirred. While those close to him claim he's "relaxed" about the impact of Councillor Cardownie's defection, the fact that he did not even know about it before it hit the papers, shows his political enemies that there could well be a slight chink in his armour.
For without complete control of the decision-making process at full council meetings, where he may have to rely on the casting vote of Lord Provost Lesley Hinds, next year's elections to cabinet positions - such as transport, education, social work and housing - as well as Cllr Anderson's own position as leader, are now all up for grabs.
"Trevor has been desperate to get on to the council's executive for some time. He's very ambitious, and it's no secret he fancies himself as a future leader.
Both Cllrs Anderson and Davies publicly speak of their support for each other. But if Cllr Davies has the backing of Councillor Milligan he could possibly rely on others falling in line.
However, Cllr Milligan's old guard cohorts Elizabeth Maginnis and Brian Fallon, according to council sources, are not too enamoured with Cllr Davies and may take some persuading.
Cllr Anderson though can always count on his fellow south Edinburgh councillors such as Ken Harrold, Sheila Gilmore, Ian Murray as well as cabinet members Ian Perry, Ewan Aitken, Andrew Burns, Kingsley Thomas and also Donald Wilson.
Those who will be assiduously wooed by either side include Bob Cairns, Bill Cunningham and Chris Wigglesworth - all of whom may have one eye on the door come the election and therefore may want to rock the boat one last time. Other wild cards include Shami Khan, Ricky Henderson, Andrew Scobbie, Lawrence Marshall and Lorna Shiels.
But as one source says it could all be in the lap of Cllr Cardownie. "The crucial issue is votes at full council meetings but looking further ahead, the Lord Provost will not have the casting vote when the next executive is chosen in the spring and Steve could end up voting with the opposition to have their candidates voted in."
For if Cllr Anderson survives the AGM, there's another hurdle ahead. The council elections are two years away, but the fact that the voting system is changing will mean that it is extremely likely that for the first time a true coalition administration - similar to that at the Scottish Parliament - will run the city.
Of course, this is one of the reasons council insiders are suggesting Cllr Cardownie has defected. He has denied this, but the changes in the system could see the 58 wards of the city reduced by more than half, with each new larger ward having three or four councillors representing it - possibly one from every major political party.
The suggestion is that Labour could see it's current 29 councillors reduced to as little as 18. It would also see the SNP gaining representation on the council, and put Cllr Cardownie in line to be that party's leader at the City Chambers.
It will also mean though that many current Labour councillors won't be making it back. Cllr Cardownie, it is said, was likely to be one who wouldn't make it through the re-selection process for Labour candidates. As one former comrade of his puts it: "He didn't do enough locally, he was always abroad, so there were rumblings in the local party about whether they wanted him."
There will be those who have already decided they will go quietly and some who will wait and see what sort of "voluntary redundancy" package the Scottish Executive comes up with before they decide. Indeed, it's been suggested the deal might be £1000 for every year served, which could be enough to tempt the likes of Cllrs Cairns, Harrold, Wigglesworth and Cunningham, maybe even Fallon. But there will definitely be those who will be planning to hang on by the skin of their whitened teeth.
In the meantime, Cllr Anderson will have to hold the Labour group together - a group which has long loved to stab its own members in the back in the bid for power. As one source close to Cllr Anderson says: "Donald is hoping that the selection process won't take place for quite some time, because if it does, he could be left with a group of councillors who know they won't be there after 2007, and may decide to cause as much trouble as possible for him before they go.
"The selection process will have to be totally transparent because if there's seen to be anything even slightly odd about it, then those who don't make it through will be trouble. Mind you, even those who decide to go voluntarily could make trouble by wanting to give Donald a bloody nose before they go."
However, another Labour insider warns: "If people in the Labour group start splitting into factions now then all it will do is damage any hope of returning after the election with a good number of councillors.
"The Labour group has been through a lot worse over the years than Steve Cardownie leaving, and it has survived - it even got re-elected after the congestion charging referendum - so it will cope no problem with his departure.
Councillor Cardownie has told some of his closest friends in the council that he will not stand any "childish or petty" attempts to reduce his role as Deputy Lord Provost - particularly if he feels they have been orchestrated by Lesley Hinds.
He has now vowed to resist attempts to see him stripped of his Deputy Lord Provost title - despite Cllr Hinds declaring: "Somebody with this lack of integrity should be relegated to the opposition benches without influence or position."
He has told friends: "I will be making my stance on issues based on the policies of the SNP and what I believe to be in the best interests of the people in my area. Should the Labour group do anything silly, or if Lesley Hinds tries to make life difficult for me and demean the position of Deputy Lord Provost, I will retaliate."
One insider said: "The situation is complicated because of Councillor Ken Harrold's illness, which means that the Labour group could lose a vote if he is not there and Steve votes against them.
This is cache, read story here
