REDONDO BEACH - On a break from her retail job, Laurel Heard slurped a green tea shake through a straw and resolutely declared she neither knew nor cared about the Nov. 8 election.
Melen McBride, a 67-year-old retiree shopping at the same mall, said she plans to vote but knows little about the eight initiatives on the ballot.
"When I talk about elections, I think about people getting elected and not so much about voting for propositions," the 35-year-old auditor said.
Only 12 times before in California history have voters cast ballots in an election like this - with only initiatives and no statewide candidates on the ballot. This off-year anomaly has left so many baffled and bewildered that interviews and polls indicate most Californians are tuning it out or turning it off.
Several political strategists predicted just 35 percent to 45 percent of the state's 15.8 million registered voters will cast ballots. That's about one-quarter to one-third of all eligible adults.
The campaigns, therefore, are now shifting their focus and funds to the "ground war," the door-knocking, phone-calling and mail-dropping battle to get their supporters to vote.
"We are doing a huge absentee ballot and voter turnout program," said Todd Harris, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign spokesman. "It is one of the largest in the history of California politics."
He said the campaign is sending 10 million pieces of mail to potential supporters and following up with phone calls, e-mails and volunteers knocking on doors.
The campaign to defeat the Republican governor's initiatives has set up 20 field offices, and Torres expects to have 15,000 volunteers on Election Day.
The campaigns have been scrambling since the governor called for the special election in June. But an August Field Poll found 57 percent of voters oppose the election and believe the governor should cancel it.
A September poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found a third of likely voters weren't interested enough to follow news about the election.
History also indicates voter participation will be low. In the last two special elections without statewide candidates on the ballot, turnout was 37.38 percent of registered voters in 1979 and 36.37 percent in 1993. In comparison, turnout hit 76 percent in last year's presidential election and 61 percent in the 2003 gubernatorial recall.
"What will be more influential on the outcome of (this year's) election is the shape of the turnout: Who will (vote)?" Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.
To make sure their supporters are the ones voting, the initiative campaigns are using old-fashioned and newfangled strategies as well as relying on certain measures to rally the faithful.
Along with the usual phone calls and mailings, the California Nurses Association is taking its opposition to the governor on the road with a recreational vehicle of nurses appealing to other nurses and patients in 32 cities.
Schwarzenegger is seeking out conservative voters with interviews on radio talk shows, and his supporters are hosting house parties to urge like-minded friends and neighbors to vote.
To get these voters to the polls, he said Republicans are counting on Proposition 73, which would require parental notification for teens seeking abortions.
In a statewide election, the GOP must overcome the eight-point advantage Democrats have in voter registration. The difference usually narrows in low-turnout elections because Republicans are more reliable voters.
Vallante said the party still must reach out to independents and Democrats to win, so it's adopted a method Bush used successfully last year to target those who are likely to agree with the GOP on the propositions. It's finding them with marketing data and a statewide survey of 12,000 voters.
Phil Giarrizzo, field director for the campaign to defeat the governor's propositions, cast doubts on Vallante's targeting, saying he'd received some of the GOP's mail. In low-turnout elections, he said, the deciding factor is which side communicates its message the most effectively.
But the governor's opponents have a problem with their message. After months of attacking the special election as unnecessary, they're urging supporters to vote in that election.
"The Democrats are in exactly the same position as the Sunnis in Iraq," said veteran GOP observer Dan Schnur. "From the very beginning, they have done everything they can to disparage the process. Now they have to turn around and convince their supporters to participate. That is a pretty quick pivot."
The governor's opponents enlisted two former Democratic presidential candidates - Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and national party Chairman Howard Dean - to urge the party faithful to vote even if they are upset about the election. Schwarzenegger's opponents also hope to turn voter anger into voter turnout.
"There is so much anger about the governor holding this election that we're not worried about turnout," said Gale Kaufman, chief strategist for the campaign to defeat Schwarzenegger's initiatives. "We will get our base out."
A poll of AFL-CIO members found a slight majority favored the measure, which would require public employee unions to get written permission from members before spending dues on political causes.
Chart: History of California special elections In California, the deadline to register to vote for an election is 15 days before Election Day. For the Nov. 8 special election, the last day to register is Oct. 24. Here are the criteria for registering and information on how to register and how to request an absentee ballot.
You can download a voter registration form at www.ss.ca.gov/elections . The form is available in English and in Spanish. When you receive your form, which takes approximately seven to 10 days, you must sign, date and return it to your county elections official. If you want to vote on Nov. 8, your form must be postmarked by Oct. 24.
This is cache, read story here
